Are Success Odds Always Diminishing?

[Stuart Dren]

This wasn't specifically for trade or self publishing, so I tossed it in the misc bucket.

Given the various market/reader progressions and seemingly growing supply of fiction, do you feel that one's personal chances at moderate success drop, even slightly, on a yearly basis? Or do you think the broad strokes are largely peripheral as far as timing goes?

I'm trying to imagine what this will look like in a decade.

Any and all thoughts welcome.

 

[Madman Starryteller]

Not that I would propose or endorse it, but perhaps we need another great library fire of Alexandria? But this time on the internet/cloud.

Alternatively, we create bot network that highlights the importance and coolness of literature. A network that's everywhere spreading pro-literature propaganda for everyone. Something that makes everyone want to read more.

But then we would also need more humans on the planet.

Tricky topic.

 

[Banespawn]

If we look at it purely on the basis of supply and demand, I imagine it fluctuates. In theory, more or less people means more or less writers, but it also means more or less readers. Supply and demand are in lockstep. Education and literacy rates may rise or decline, but again, that is going to affect both sides of the equation to an equal degree.

AI writing might flood the market, creating an overwhelming supply, but I think that will hurt self-publishing more than traditional publishing, as I think readers who want to avoid stories written by AI will put their trust in traditional publishers over random Amazon writer #89873394. I think this already happens to a large degree simply based on the general quality of traditional vs self-pub books. That's not to say that there aren't good books being self-pubbed, or that bad books don't find their way through the traditional route, but the average quality on the traditional side is considerably higher. I feel like that type of gatekeeping, or quality-control, will help to mitigate the AI flood.

Regardless of how much those outside forces impact our chances of success, they are minor compared to the things we actually have control over. If we are consistently working and improving, then our chances increase commensurately. I won't say that luck isn't a part of the overall equation, but it's maybe 1% of the whole. No amount of good luck will save truly poor writing, and no amount of bad luck will keep truly good writing from finding some measure of success.

 

[Naomasa298]

Success odds have never been particularly high.