Are Success Odds Always Diminishing?

[Stuart Dren]

This wasn't specifically for trade or self publishing, so I tossed it in the misc bucket.

Given the various market/reader progressions and seemingly growing supply of fiction, do you feel that one's personal chances at moderate success drop, even slightly, on a yearly basis? Or do you think the broad strokes are largely peripheral as far as timing goes?

I'm trying to imagine what this will look like in a decade.

Any and all thoughts welcome.

 

[Madman Starryteller]

Not that I would propose or endorse it, but perhaps we need another great library fire of Alexandria? But this time on the internet/cloud.

Alternatively, we create bot network that highlights the importance and coolness of literature. A network that's everywhere spreading pro-literature propaganda for everyone. Something that makes everyone want to read more.

But then we would also need more humans on the planet.

Tricky topic.

 

[Banespawn]

If we look at it purely on the basis of supply and demand, I imagine it fluctuates. In theory, more or less people means more or less writers, but it also means more or less readers. Supply and demand are in lockstep. Education and literacy rates may rise or decline, but again, that is going to affect both sides of the equation to an equal degree.

AI writing might flood the market, creating an overwhelming supply, but I think that will hurt self-publishing more than traditional publishing, as I think readers who want to avoid stories written by AI will put their trust in traditional publishers over random Amazon writer #89873394. I think this already happens to a large degree simply based on the general quality of traditional vs self-pub books. That's not to say that there aren't good books being self-pubbed, or that bad books don't find their way through the traditional route, but the average quality on the traditional side is considerably higher. I feel like that type of gatekeeping, or quality-control, will help to mitigate the AI flood.

Regardless of how much those outside forces impact our chances of success, they are minor compared to the things we actually have control over. If we are consistently working and improving, then our chances increase commensurately. I won't say that luck isn't a part of the overall equation, but it's maybe 1% of the whole. No amount of good luck will save truly poor writing, and no amount of bad luck will keep truly good writing from finding some measure of success.

 

[Naomasa298]

Success odds have never been particularly high.

 

[Homer Potvin]

How are you defining success? The market has never been more flooded, but you've also never been had as much control over the marketplace as you do now. And the means of production have never been more accessible. Forty years ago, you could not sell a book unless you:

1. Paid an exorbitant amount to print it yourself
2. Had a physical brick and mortar store in which to sell it
3. Had a traditional print marketing plan in an established publication to let alone know it was available.

Now you need none of those things, as product, marketplace, and marketing can essentially by DYI'd for "free."

So which is an easier path to success? End of the day, if your writing is good and properly marketed, you will be successful to one degree or another. If your writing sucks, none of the above matters. That shouldn't change much over time.